DAYTONA BEACH, Fla – There's a chance a NASCAR star could miss the Daytona 500.
It's a true statement, though on the surface, it is a bit hyperbolic. Because of the abolishment of the top-35 rule, 13 drivers are locked in to Sunday's Daytona 500, leaving 36 drivers to race for 30 spots in Thursday's Budweiser Duels.
Here's how it works. Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are starting the Daytona 500 on the front row. If they crash and are forced to go to a backup car in either of Thursday's qualifying races, they'll have to start at the back of the field. But they're still in the race.
Outside of Gordon and Johnson, Jamie McMurray, Carl Edwards, Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. are also guaranteed to be in the 500. They posted the four-fastest non-front row times on Sunday.
However, it's not guaranteed where those four will start the race. The top 15 finishers (outside of Gordon and Johnson) in each Duel take starting spots 2-32 in the race. If the four finish in the top 15 of their duels, the spots guaranteed on speed move to the next eligible drivers who didn't finish in the top 15.
Then, rounding out the field are seven provisional spots, including one for a past Sprint Cup Series champion. The first one up on that list (who isn't guaranteed a provisional via the 2014 owner's points standings) is Tony Stewart. He's guaranteed in the Daytona 500, but if he finishes in the top 15 in his race or gets in on speed, it could go to Kurt Busch or Bobby Labonte.
The chances of Dale Earnhardt Jr. missing the 500 are quite slim. Junior isn't guaranteed in because he didn't have a top-six speed in Sunday's front row qualifying session and didn't finish high enough in the 2014 owner's points standings to guarantee himself a provisional. But for Junior to miss the 500, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth (all guaranteed into the 500) would all have to take provisionals. It's (incredibly likely) not happening.
Danica Patrick? Well, her chances of missing the 500 are bigger. After posting the 31st-fastest qualifying time on Sunday, Patrick needs a lot of cars faster than she was on Sunday to race into the top 15 in their duels and not need a provisional. That is, of course, if Patrick doesn't finish in the top 15 of her duel. If she does, she's in.
Here are the starting lineups for the Budweiser Duels and who our best guesses as to who will make the Daytona 500. We're not expecting any surprises, but just one crash could throw a wrench into anyone's best guesses.
RACE 1
1. Jeff Gordon - IN
2. Matt Kenseth - IN
3. Kasey Kahne - IN
4. Ty Dillon - IN
5. Jamie McMurray - IN
6. Johnny Sauter - IN
7. Trevor Bayne - IN8. Aric Almirola - IN
9. Brad Keselowski - IN
10. Joey Logano - IN
11. J.J. Yeley - IN
12. Paul Menard - IN
13. AJ Allmendinger - IN
14. Kevin Harvick - IN
15. Tony Stewart - IN
16. Casey Mears - IN
17. Michael Annett
18. Kyle Larson - IN
19. Michael McDowell - IN
20. Clint Bowyer - IN
21. Justin Marks
22. Cole Whitt - IN
23. Landon Cassill - IN
24. Ron Hornaday Jr.
25. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - IN
RACE 2
1. Jimmie Johnson - IN
2. Kyle Busch - IN
3. Carl Edwards - IN
4. Austin Dillon - IN
5. Martin Truex Jr. - IN
6. Greg Biffle - IN
7. Sam Hornish Jr. - IN
8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - IN
9. Ryan Blaney - IN
10. Michael Waltrip - IN
11. Bobby Labonte - IN
12. Alex Bowman - IN
13. Ryan Newman - IN
14. Kurt Busch - IN
15. Danica Patrick - IN
16. Brian Scott - IN
17. Justin Allgaier - IN
18. David Gilliland - IN
19. Jeb Burton
20. Reed Sorenson
21. David Ragan - IN
22. Josh Wise - IN
23. Mike Wallace
24. Denny Hamlin - IN
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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